Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Market Prediction Update March 04, 2009

By A.C.H.

A price as predicted with gold (SPDR, GLD -1.11%). If I recall, this price fell at the close 1.14% or 89.01 (-1.03). My call was correct.

Silver was not over-all the best purchase although as specified earlier, any range below 6.66 might become a good idea as a possible hedge against the onslaught of market changes and inflation?

Silver Wheaton Corporation (SLW) was indicated as approaching 6.16 within a pre-market post. Clearly, this remained true of the day’s range 6.09-6.46 to a close of 6.25. An after-market loss of 0.32% presented an over-all 0.14 cent change.

For the oversold basics of industry such as copper, iron, and oil, today’s change was certainly a welcome event although was this all together positive?

Should an industrious People’s Republic of China be thanked dearly for today’s investor confidence boost?

Buyer Beware!

Remember that in spite of today's rally, the financial sector fell apart (again). This is worrisome and perhaps more than a hint of further problems ahead.

Now it is the best time to be very careful as today’s gain following major losses within world market functions could simply indicate either a false bottom, a real bottom for commodities, or a SUCKER RALLY.

Remain wary of buying on the top of any sucker rally! Never follow the herd of bleating mindless sheeple toward the average. As in any of the uncertain times, herd mentality will often pull a majority beyond rational thought.

1. Be rational and on time to sell when you make a meaningful profit. Never wait for greater gains especially when/ if you are in a sucker rally. Never assume that a bottom is certain no matter what history, graphs, politicians, or your numbers might suggest.

2. Observe world paradigms and be patient.

3. Keep your emotions out of the market!

Within this world’s market system, the question is true of timing and less in price!

Now as this world continues heading into a financial crisis of devastating proportions, one should know that there will continue to be a market system of any kind. It is our intellect that will sustain it. If you must, be wise and invest with patience, persistence, and perseverance. Do this and you could financially survive just as the market has always survived the worst of human conditions.

This being said, here is what I recommend to those who wish to play it safe:

Limit your exposure on bear rallies and be aware as the DJIA could fail to a level of 4,000 (+/-200).

Personally, I see the downside of the market system as highly probable and will stand with a previous warning prediction in 2006 as “a war when the market reaches four…”. Right now, our world is sinking fast into financial and social chaos.